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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 5-B.Pinion punts 32 yards to SEA 12, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.32 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model