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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to SF 7, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.77 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.61 EP