Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 6

(15:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to SEA 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.55 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model