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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 12

Carolina Panthers 14 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Catanzaro 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.13 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP