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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 31

Cleveland Browns 14 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model