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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 45

Carolina Panthers 17 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 80-I.Thomas to CLE 36 for 9 yards (23-D.Randall). PENALTY on CAR-80-I.Thomas, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.01 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model