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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 17 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 4-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model