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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 20 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to CLE 6, Center-44-J.Jansen. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 25 for 19 yards (54-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.22 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model