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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 23 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:51) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.96 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model