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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 26 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 47 yards to CAR 29, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 23-K.Barner to CAR 35 for 6 yards (27-T.Thomas; 59-D.Hines).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.21 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model