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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(2:46) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to CLE 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model