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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 2 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 6-C.Kessler right guard to TEN 3 for 2 yards (94-A.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model