4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 2 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to TEN 1 for no gain (54-R.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model