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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 87

Tennessee Titans 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 2

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to JAX 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 24 for -1 yards (46-J.Kalu).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.83 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 87, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 45, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model