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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 2 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to TEN 35, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model