Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 2 – Tennessee Titans 16

(13:09) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to TEN 24, Center-45-M.Overton. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 32 for 8 yards (57-N.DeLuca).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model