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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Tennessee Titans 30

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete deep left to 10-D.Moncrief.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.21 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model