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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 3 at the 3
Tennessee Titans 30 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9
What Actually Happened
(6:12) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 84-C.Davis.
The Three Options
GO
+2.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
- 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 3, worth -0.01 EP
KICK
+1.78 EP
- 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
