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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 54 yards to TEN 14, Center-45-M.Overton. 17-C.Batson to TEN 19 for 5 yards (43-Q.Meeks; 22-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.42 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model