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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 13 at the 13

Chicago Bears 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 1-C.Parkey 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model