Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(8:18) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 81-G.Everett to LA 34 for 6 yards (30-B.Cunningham). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 81-G.Everett to LA 35 for 7 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

What Happened

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model