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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 54

Chicago Bears 6 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to LA 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 54, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EP