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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to CHI 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 39 for 22 yards (6-J.Hekker).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.50 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model