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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP