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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 62

Chicago Bears 15 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to LA 5, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-15-J.Bellamy.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.22 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model