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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Chicago Bears 15

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 26 for -12 yards (96-A.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.57 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model