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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 20

Chicago Bears 15 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 1-C.Parkey 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +2.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model