4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 52

Chicago Bears 15 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to LA 2, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +0.68 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -1.00 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model