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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 22

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 5-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.99 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model