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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 9-B.Anger punt is BLOCKED by 7-T.Hill, Center-89-G.Sanborn, RECOVERED by NO-27-D.Washington at TB 30. 27-D.Washington to TB 30 for no gain (52-C.Lynch).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP