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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 11 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 65-M.Ola reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model