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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 18

New Orleans Saints 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +4.24 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model