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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.72 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model