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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 72

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to NYG 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-41-D.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.73 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model