4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 61

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to NYG 10, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 21 for 11 yards (51-S.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model