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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 67

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to NYG 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 80-J.Davis to NYG 18 for no gain (35-M.Nicholson).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP