Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 34 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to WAS 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman. PENALTY on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model