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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 17 at the 82

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 34

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 5-T.Way punts 63 yards to NYG 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-35-M.Nicholson.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.80 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model