Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 79

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to WAS 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 37-G.Stroman. PENALTY on WAS-35-M.Nicholson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38. Penalty on WAS-37-G.Stroman, Invalid Fair Catch Signal, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.99 EP
64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model