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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 22

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 40

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 8-J.Johnson scrambles up the middle to NYG 21 for 1 yard (72-K.Wynn; 59-L.Carter).

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model