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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 40 – Washington Commanders 8

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to WAS 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 37-G.Stroman to WAS 23 for -2 yards (81-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.37 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model