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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 59

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to NYG 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 80-J.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model