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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 78

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 63 yards to PHI 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 35, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model