4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 3

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP