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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(7:02) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to DAL 14, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 56, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 17, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP