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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 48

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 43-D.Sproles to DAL 23 for 25 yards (25-X.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.56 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 48, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model