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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to DAL 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.26 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model