Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to DAL 15, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 16 for 1 yard (36-D.Hall). PENALTY on DAL-45-R.Smith, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.08 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model