Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 56

Buffalo Bills 7 – Detroit Lions 13

(2:29) 8-M.Darr punts 38 yards to DET 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 13-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model