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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 63

Detroit Lions 13 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to BUF 13, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 13 for no gain (47-T.Walker).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.63 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model